Michael Mazza On Taiwan: A Tale of Two Tests

By: Michael Mazza | Taipei Times |

Five weeks since US President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing, his administration now faces two important tests in the Indo-Pacific.

The first test is one of the president’s own making. After meeting with Xi, Trump described arms sales to Taiwan as “a very good negotiating chip” and announced that a previously approved sale was now “in abeyance.” The Financial Times later reported that Beijing is holding approval for a visit by Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, pending the president’s decision on the sale.

During Trump’s first term in office, he regularized the arms sale process. Rather than grouping sales into large, infrequent packages, which were then timed to avoid coinciding with the US-China diplomatic calendar, the president moved towards a process in which sales were granted as requested, regardless of timing.

This was good for Washington, Taipei, and even Beijing. It created greater predictability for all three parties. And by disentangling US-China diplomacy from the arms sales process, it theoretically eased talks on other issues where compromise was actually possible.

But in his second term, the president has walked away from that approach. He preemptively held off on final approval for a sale in return for a meeting with Xi in which the Chinese leader gave him little of value in return. Now Beijing is seeing if it can repeat this feat with a sub-cabinet official. Hence the test.

Read the full article on Taipei Times.