March 30, 2026

Nuclear Escalation Control in a Taiwan Strait Crisis

Katsuya Yamamoto, Lai I-Chung, Michael Mazza, Nobukatsu Kanehara, Norah Huang, Randall G. Schriver, Takuma Matsu

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The rapid modernization of China’s military has raised concerns about the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC, China) ability to threaten Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific region. In light of the growing urgency of the China threat, the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security partnered with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and the Prospect Foundation to conduct a tabletop exercise that explores whether Japan, the United States, and Taiwan are prepared for a crisis that may be coming down the pike.

Centered on a series of fictional and escalatory gray zone activities and nuclear signaling taking place in 2028, the exercise was designed to develop mutual understandings of views on Chinese threats in the Taiwan Strait among experienced Japan, U.S., and Taiwan national security practitioners.

Read the report to see key highlights and takeaways from this exercise.

Nuclear-Escalation-Control-in-a-Taiwan-Strait-Crisis