January 5, 2026

If China Invades Taiwan, What Would Japan Do?

Yuki Tatsumi

By: The Diplomat |

Imagine this scenario: it’s finally happening. China is moving to take Taiwan by force. Chinese warships are blockading the island of Taiwan and the surrounding area, while missiles and UAVs rain down destruction on the Taiwanese people from above.

In this hypothetical scenario, what is Japan doing?

This is a question of some urgency for Tokyo these days. For one thing, Japan’s westernmost island is only about 110 kilometers away from Taiwan – much closer than it is to the Japanese mainland. Then, of course, there’s the question of a more direct attack on the homeland: Japan hosts around 55,000 U.S. soldiers on 15 major bases. China could easily decide to target these sites.

Given all that’s at stake, how would Japan respond in a scenario that could lead to the world’s first great power war since 1945? And in a clash between two superpowers, would Japan’s contribution matter?

In this episode of Diplomat Asia, we explain Japan’s military and security strategy for a Taiwan contingency – and why the United States’ choices will be key to any action by Japan.

Watch on YouTube:

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